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We posted an article last week, proving with Monte-Carlo simulations the fact that events (accidents, casino winnings) tend to appear in clusters, with long accident-free time periods between clusters. A cluster is defined as a short time period with many accidents.

Here's the article, and below is its first sentence:

*Very short time periods (6 months) with several [plane]crashes, as well as long time periods (3 years) with no crashes are expected. An even distribution of plane crashes is indeed NOT expected - it would look very suspicious, and definitely not random.*

In this challenge, we ask you to read our proposed explanation and spreadsheet (the spreadsheet password is 5150), and then come up with a real mathematical / statistical explanation, not just Monte-Carlo simulations like we did. Our article provide hints about developing a theoretical solution. This is an exciting data science topic.

Anyone who posts a sound statistical explanation is entitled to a free, signed copy of my data science book: Email me at [email protected] with the subject line "Law of Series Challenge" to receive your copy.

Click here to check out our previous challenge of the week.

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