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Seasonal and Cyclic forecasting for the small firm - a case study.

Tags: forecasting, retail, sales

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great intro paper, altough the method outlined does not work that well in practice, decomposing time series into seasonal, trend and cyclical components certainly helps someone unfamiliar with forecasting to understand what is happening, holt winters (based on trend, season, smoothing etc) work better in practice, and arima is generally very very good



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