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Eka Aulia
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Keith McCormick commented on Eka Aulia's blog post Predictive modeling is useless! Here's why.
"The outcome was unfortunate, but predictable. The managers of the team that is directly effected (the sales team in this case) must be present at the earliest stages of planning the predictive analytics project. They don't need to attend every…"
Jun 7, 2015
Thomas Lincoln commented on Eka Aulia's blog post Predictive modeling is useless! Here's why.
"@wayne. . . poor title, I agree. . .and if you are debating the contents versus the title, i don't disagree.  However, i don't have enough time to critique people poor writing or sensational titles, but I do observe quite a bit of…"
Jan 5, 2015
Wayne G. Fischer, PhD commented on Eka Aulia's blog post Predictive modeling is useless! Here's why.
"@Thomas: The title of this blog implies that predictive analytics in some way is at fault..."useless."  When in reality the model did what it was meant to do, as the blog clearly relates.  All of your reasons in support of the…"
Jan 3, 2015
Thomas Lincoln commented on Eka Aulia's blog post Predictive modeling is useless! Here's why.
"@wayne, yes to point #1, but #2 you are projecting higher level sales mgmt skills, which in reality doesn't exist everywhere at your level of assumptions.  Direct selling, usually B2B, is way different than consumer sales,…"
Jan 3, 2015
Wayne G. Fischer, PhD commented on Eka Aulia's blog post Predictive modeling is useless! Here's why.
"@Thomas: 1) The competent modeler will *always* communicate the assumptions upon which the model is built (e.g., process does not fundamentally change), and its limitations. 2) Even a sales mgmt team will recognize that something is fundamentally…"
Jan 3, 2015
Thomas Lincoln commented on Eka Aulia's blog post Predictive modeling is useless! Here's why.
"@Wayne, Yes, but every non modeling, non quantitative sales mgmt team doesn't realize that they have to remain more or less static if they want to use a customized predictive model.  Old direct-sell sales mgmt is all about the art of…"
Jan 2, 2015
Eka Aulia posted a blog post

Talent Analytics: How to Find Top Talents and How Job Seekers Find the Right Job

How do you know that the candidate that you're going hire will become a high performer? Should you choose the candidate with 3.5 GPA and reject the candidate with 2.5 GPA? However, how do you know for sure that higher GPA will have better performance compared to those with lower GPA? And why company like Google and AT&T start choose candidate with less academic records or from non prestigious schools?On the other hand, if you are a job seeker, with your current strength and weakness,…See More
Feb 23, 2014
Wayne G. Fischer, PhD commented on Eka Aulia's blog post Predictive modeling is useless! Here's why.
"Ahhh, where to begin...? 1)  Sorry, you never did explain (in general) why "predictive modeling is useless."  One anecdote never constitutes proof. 2)  And, your story is a typical example of the *successful* use of…"
Aug 31, 2013
Lance Olson commented on Eka Aulia's blog post Predictive modeling is useless! Here's why.
"Nice post Eka. It always get really interesting to include the sales strategy and sales activities in a predictive model."
Aug 28, 2013
Eka Aulia posted a blog post

Predictive modeling is useless! Here's why.

If you're a modeler, you might say, “who the heck is this guy telling me that my precious thing is useless?” Wait a minute. I will explain later.Let me tell you a story. Once upon a time, I was preaching in front of senior management on how we could get more money. Using predictive model, it was proven that business could get cleaner leads, the right customer with higher likelihood to take our product. On paper, we could increase the revenue. It turns out, the customer response went double and…See More
Aug 25, 2013
Eka Aulia commented on Eka Aulia's blog post Who Has The Largest Predictive Data Analytics?
"I think you are right Vincent. Other than that, perhaps online gambling industry might use predictive analytics really well too. Come to think of it, to be able to predict on anything with large and readily available data, the government should…"
Aug 17, 2013
Eka Aulia replied to Dhruv Goel's discussion Churn Analysis
"Hi Dhruv, first you need to define what is churn. It can be an actual account closure by the customer, or the customer still active but doesn't use the service anymore. This is very crucial to understand the correct definition. The answer will…"
Aug 15, 2013
Vincent Granville commented on Eka Aulia's blog post Who Has The Largest Predictive Data Analytics?
"Or who has the longer-term correct forecast, be it stock market, weather forecast, sales forecast etc. It might or might not require big data. It might not require any data at all, if you have vision and intuition. For instance I predict that in…"
Aug 15, 2013
Eric King commented on Eka Aulia's blog post Who Has The Largest Predictive Data Analytics?
"Instead of who has the largest predictive analytics, I think we should be asking "who has the most purposeful, understandable, measurable, accountable, impactful and residual predictive analytics"  -- regardless of size!!…"
Aug 15, 2013
Eka Aulia's blog post was featured

Who Has The Largest Predictive Data Analytics?

With vast amount of data that currently available, who should be able to predict the future the most? Should it be Google? Facebook? Twitter? Google claim to be able to predict the flu epidemic in the future, and other things. Is it because Google has the biggest data in this world? Or it is not?If big data can predict the future, then those who have the biggest data are the ones who can better predict what will…See More
Aug 12, 2013
Eka Aulia commented on Eric Siegel's blog post The New Predictive Profession – Odd Yet Newly Legitimate
"Its too sad if predictive analytics are viewed as either magic or “snake-oil” by most people. All human behavior follows specific patterns. In fact, every little things in this world has patterns, from bacteria's patterns to…"
Aug 12, 2013

Profile Information

Short Bio:
Modeling Analyst at Financial Industry
My Website or LinkedIn Profile (URL):
http://id.linkedin.com/in/ekaaulia
Field of Expertise:
Business Analytics, Predictive Modeling, Marketing Databases, Statistical Programming, Statistical Consulting
Years of Experience in Analytical Role:
5
Professional Status:
VP
Interests:
Networking
How did you find out about AnalyticBridge?
LinkedIn

Eka Aulia's Blog

Talent Analytics: How to Find Top Talents and How Job Seekers Find the Right Job

Posted on February 22, 2014 at 7:02pm 0 Comments

How do you know that the candidate that you're going hire will become a high performer? Should you choose the candidate with 3.5 GPA and reject the candidate with 2.5 GPA? However, how do you know for sure that higher GPA will have better performance compared to those with lower GPA? And why company like Google and AT&T start choose candidate with less academic records or from non prestigious schools?

On the other hand, if you are a job seeker, with your current strength…

Continue

Predictive modeling is useless! Here's why.

Posted on August 25, 2013 at 7:19pm 8 Comments

If you're a modeler, you might say, “who the heck is this guy telling me that my precious thing is useless?” Wait a minute. I will explain later.

Let me tell you a story. Once upon a time, I was preaching in front of senior management on how we could get more money. Using predictive model, it was proven that business could get cleaner leads, the right customer with higher likelihood to take our product. On paper, we could increase the revenue. It turns out, the customer response went…

Continue

Who Has The Largest Predictive Data Analytics?

Posted on August 12, 2013 at 6:00pm 5 Comments

With vast amount of data that currently available, who should be able to predict the future the most? Should it be Google? Facebook? Twitter? Google claim to be able to predict the flu epidemic in the future, and other things. Is it because Google has the biggest data in this world? Or it is not?

If big data can predict the future, then those who have the biggest data are the ones who can better predict…

Continue

Predicting the reality show winner using big data

Posted on April 29, 2013 at 9:25am 0 Comments

I wonder, using big data and predictive analytic, can we predict the winner of x-factor or American Idols from the start of their audition performance? I think we might have a good chance to predict the winner right away.

What if we could only have the information from their first performance, what should be the variables to be used in the predictive model? Here’s from what I could think of:

  • The voice: quantified timbre, energy and rhythm
  • Song…
Continue

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