The Duhem-Quine thesis and experimental economics A reinterpretation

Morten Søberg

Abstract:

The Duhem-Quine thesis asserts that any empirical evaluation of a theory is in fact a composite test of several interconnected hypotheses. Recalcitrant evidence signals falsity within the conjunction of hypotheses, but logic alone cannot pinpoint the individual element(s) inside the theoretical cluster responsible for a false prediction. This paper…

I call this post "pornography" its a repository of old re-prints in modern econometrics and related stuff.....

I intend to keep updating it as stuff comes to my attention;

its the kind of [old] logical (positivist) material I really like;

.. all the comments come with this link  ……

From Posteriors to Priors via Cycles: An Addendum

Martin F. Hellwig

Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods

April 21, 2011

Abstract

Rodrigues-Neto (2009) has shown that a given specification of posteriors of different players in an incomplete-information setting is compatible with a common prior if and only if the posteriors satisfy the so-called cycle equations. This note shows that, if, for any player, any…

http://www.progressfoundation.ch/pdf/autoren/132_Neil%20Wallace_E.pdf

" The Lucas Critique "

http://pareto.uab.es/mcreel/reading_course_2006_2007/lucas1976.pdf

Richard T. Ely Lecture
Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Macroeconomic Risk
By Lars Peter Hansen

http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/conferences/koopmans/tck08/hansen4.pdf

Change and Expectations in Macroeconomic Models:

Recognizing the Limits to Knowability

Roman Frydman and Michael D. Goldberg

March 13th, 2012

http://www.ifw-kiel.de/konfer/staff-seminar/paper/2012/Frydman_paper.pdf…

I remember my Professor giving me a photocopy of this [1st reference below] (cf also what is known as K&P '1982'] & I went and sat down in an empty 'Adam Smith' library and read it; it was hot and sunny outside & I did not make sense of one single word, there was alot of that going on that year (1985) but I read it again & made notes in pencil on a pad of accounting paper I remember (vividly); then I went to the park (Glasgow is full of Victorian Parks, its nickname…

on Eric Zivot's pages I think : http://faculty.washington.edu/ezivot/econ584/stck_watson_var.pdf

Rational Expectations in Games
By Robert J. Aumann and Jacques H. Dreze

http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/raumann/pdf/86.pdf

Richard T. Ely Lecture
Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Macroeconomic Risk
By Lars Peter Hansen

http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/conferences/koopmans/tck08/hansen4.pdf

First Draft: July 2011
This Draft: March 14, 2012

INCOMPLETE (THIS VERSION)

http://www.econ.kuleuven.be/eng/ew/seminars/papers2012/Paper_Ghysels.pdf

Bank of England

Working Paper No. 448

Non-rational expectations and the transmission mechanism
Richard Harrison and Tim Taylor
May 2012

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/workingpapers/wp448.pdf

Irrationality or Efficiency of Macroeconomic Survey Forecasts?

Implications from the Anchoring Bias Test

Abstract

We analyze the quality of macroeconomic survey forecasts. Recent findings indicate that they are anchoring biased. This irrationality would challenge the results of a wide range of empirical studies, e.g., in asset pricing, volatility clustering or market liquidity, which rely on survey data to capture market participants’…

I have become interested in the new micro-economic foundations of Macro - Rational Expectations Economics (in the context of irrational macro-policy design, particularly visible in the EuroZone); here are two interesting papers from one seminar at Warwick, link below abstracts ..

FIRST PAPER

A MODEL OF REFERENCE-DEPENDENT PREFERENCES

*BOTOND KO˝SZEGI AND MATTHEW RABIN

ABSTRACT: We develop a model of…

my LinkedIn List

Nobel Prize in Economics 2011 for Sargent & Sims (RE & VAR) - very pertinent to now

http://lnkd.in/rRDp_V

The Logistic Map and the Route to Chaos

http://www.springer.com/physics/complexity/book/978-3-540-28366-9

One dimensional maps and a route to chaos…

Identifying the Macroeconomic Effects of Bank Lending Supply Shocks
William F. Bassett Mary Beth Chosak John C. Driscoll Egon Zakrajsek
Federal Reserve Board
January 2011

http://kcfed.org/publicat/events/research/2011DayAhead/13Driscoll.pdf

(Econometrica, Vol. 78, No. 2, March 2010, 603–632)
BY YAN BAI AND JING ZHANG

http://www.econometricsociety.org/ecta/Supmat/6619_extensions.pdf

Solving the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle with Financial Frictions

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~jzhang/papers/Bai_Zhang_FHPaper.pdf

Bank of England Working Paper by Joseph Noss



http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/workingpapers/wp407.pdf



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(I generally do not do this & not usually to BoE work)

They seek the Holy Grail…..…