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The Duhem-Quine thesis and experimental economics A reinterpretation
Morten Søberg
Abstract:
The Duhem-Quine thesis asserts that any empirical evaluation of a theory is in fact a composite test of several interconnected hypotheses. Recalcitrant evidence signals falsity within the conjunction of hypotheses, but logic alone cannot pinpoint the individual element(s) inside the theoretical cluster responsible for a false prediction. This paper…
Added by John A Morrison on August 12, 2012 at 10:30pm — 1 Comment
I call this post "pornography" its a repository of old re-prints in modern econometrics and related stuff.....
I intend to keep updating it as stuff comes to my attention;
its the kind of [old] logical (positivist) material I really like;
.. all the comments come with this link ……
ContinueAdded by John A Morrison on August 7, 2012 at 1:15pm — No Comments
From Posteriors to Priors via Cycles: An Addendum
Martin F. Hellwig
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods
April 21, 2011
Abstract
Rodrigues-Neto (2009) has shown that a given specification of posteriors of different players in an incomplete-information setting is compatible with a common prior if and only if the posteriors satisfy the so-called cycle equations. This note shows that, if, for any player, any…
Added by John A Morrison on July 23, 2012 at 9:34pm — No Comments
Added by John A Morrison on July 20, 2012 at 11:52pm — No Comments
" The Lucas Critique "
http://pareto.uab.es/mcreel/reading_course_2006_2007/lucas1976.pdf
Added by John A Morrison on July 20, 2012 at 11:30pm — 2 Comments
Richard T. Ely Lecture
Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Macroeconomic Risk
By Lars Peter Hansen
http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/conferences/koopmans/tck08/hansen4.pdf
Added by John A Morrison on July 20, 2012 at 11:24pm — No Comments
Change and Expectations in Macroeconomic Models:
Recognizing the Limits to Knowability
Roman Frydman and Michael D. Goldberg
March 13th, 2012
http://www.ifw-kiel.de/konfer/staff-seminar/paper/2012/Frydman_paper.pdf…
ContinueAdded by John A Morrison on July 20, 2012 at 11:00pm — 7 Comments
I remember my Professor giving me a photocopy of this [1st reference below] (cf also what is known as K&P '1982'] & I went and sat down in an empty 'Adam Smith' library and read it; it was hot and sunny outside & I did not make sense of one single word, there was alot of that going on that year (1985) but I read it again & made notes in pencil on a pad of accounting paper I remember (vividly); then I went to the park (Glasgow is full of Victorian Parks, its nickname…
ContinueAdded by John A Morrison on July 20, 2012 at 10:35pm — No Comments
on Eric Zivot's pages I think : http://faculty.washington.edu/ezivot/econ584/stck_watson_var.pdf
Added by John A Morrison on July 19, 2012 at 9:59am — No Comments
Rational Expectations in Games
By Robert J. Aumann and Jacques H. Dreze
Added by John A Morrison on July 17, 2012 at 8:30am — No Comments
Richard T. Ely Lecture
Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Macroeconomic Risk
By Lars Peter Hansen
http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/conferences/koopmans/tck08/hansen4.pdf
Added by John A Morrison on July 17, 2012 at 8:30am — No Comments
First Draft: July 2011
This Draft: March 14, 2012
INCOMPLETE (THIS VERSION)
http://www.econ.kuleuven.be/eng/ew/seminars/papers2012/Paper_Ghysels.pdf
Added by John A Morrison on July 11, 2012 at 4:00am — 1 Comment
Bank of England
Working Paper No. 448
Non-rational expectations and the transmission mechanism
Richard Harrison and Tim Taylor
May 2012
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/workingpapers/wp448.pdf
Added by John A Morrison on May 19, 2012 at 4:30am — No Comments
Irrationality or Efficiency of Macroeconomic Survey Forecasts?
Implications from the Anchoring Bias Test
Abstract
We analyze the quality of macroeconomic survey forecasts. Recent findings indicate that they are anchoring biased. This irrationality would challenge the results of a wide range of empirical studies, e.g., in asset pricing, volatility clustering or market liquidity, which rely on survey data to capture market participants’…
Added by John A Morrison on February 21, 2012 at 7:00am — No Comments
I have become interested in the new micro-economic foundations of Macro - Rational Expectations Economics (in the context of irrational macro-policy design, particularly visible in the EuroZone); here are two interesting papers from one seminar at Warwick, link below abstracts ..
FIRST PAPER
A MODEL OF REFERENCE-DEPENDENT PREFERENCES
*BOTOND KO˝SZEGI AND MATTHEW RABIN
ABSTRACT: We develop a model of…
ContinueAdded by John A Morrison on November 14, 2011 at 9:30am — No Comments
my LinkedIn List
Added by John A Morrison on October 19, 2011 at 7:00am — No Comments
http://www.springer.com/physics/complexity/book/978-3-540-28366-9
One dimensional maps and a route to chaos…
ContinueAdded by John A Morrison on September 22, 2011 at 1:00am — 1 Comment
Identifying the Macroeconomic Effects of Bank Lending Supply Shocks
William F. Bassett Mary Beth Chosak John C. Driscoll Egon Zakrajsek
Federal Reserve Board
January 2011
http://kcfed.org/publicat/events/research/2011DayAhead/13Driscoll.pdf
Added by John A Morrison on September 5, 2011 at 9:00pm — No Comments
(Econometrica, Vol. 78, No. 2, March 2010, 603–632)
BY YAN BAI AND JING ZHANG
http://www.econometricsociety.org/ecta/Supmat/6619_extensions.pdf
Solving the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle with Financial Frictions
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~jzhang/papers/Bai_Zhang_FHPaper.pdf
Added by John A Morrison on January 1, 2011 at 10:30pm — 2 Comments
Bank of England Working Paper by Joseph Noss
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/workingpapers/wp407.pdf
COMMENT ON THIS PAPER
(I generally do not do this & not usually to BoE work)
They seek the Holy Grail…..…
ContinueAdded by John A Morrison on December 5, 2010 at 12:30am — No Comments
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