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John A Morrison's Blog Posts Tagged 'REH' (25)

The Duhem-Quine thesis and experimental economics A reinterpretation

The Duhem-Quine thesis and experimental economics A reinterpretation

Morten Søberg

Abstract:



The Duhem-Quine thesis asserts that any empirical evaluation of a theory is in fact a composite test of several interconnected hypotheses. Recalcitrant evidence signals falsity within the conjunction of hypotheses, but logic alone cannot pinpoint the individual element(s) inside the theoretical cluster responsible for a false prediction. This paper…

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Added by John A Morrison on August 12, 2012 at 10:30pm — 1 Comment

Econometric Pornography on G+

I call this post "pornography" its a repository of old re-prints in modern econometrics and related stuff.....

I intend to keep updating it as stuff comes to my attention;

its the kind of [old] logical (positivist) material I really like;

.. all the comments come with this link  ……

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Added by John A Morrison on August 7, 2012 at 1:15pm — No Comments

From Posteriors to Priors via Cycles

From Posteriors to Priors via Cycles: An Addendum

Martin F. Hellwig

Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods

April 21, 2011

Abstract



Rodrigues-Neto (2009) has shown that a given specification of posteriors of different players in an incomplete-information setting is compatible with a common prior if and only if the posteriors satisfy the so-called cycle equations. This note shows that, if, for any player, any…

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Added by John A Morrison on July 23, 2012 at 9:34pm — No Comments

Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Macroeconomic Risk

Richard T. Ely Lecture
Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Macroeconomic Risk
By Lars Peter Hansen

http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/conferences/koopmans/tck08/hansen4.pdf

Added by John A Morrison on July 20, 2012 at 11:24pm — No Comments

Recognizing the Limits to Knowability

Change and Expectations in Macroeconomic Models:

Recognizing the Limits to Knowability

Roman Frydman and Michael D. Goldberg

March 13th, 2012

http://www.ifw-kiel.de/konfer/staff-seminar/paper/2012/Frydman_paper.pdf…

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Added by John A Morrison on July 20, 2012 at 11:00pm — 7 Comments

Kydland & Prescott - The Original (for me) "Dynamic Optimal Taxation"

I remember my Professor giving me a photocopy of this [1st reference below] (cf also what is known as K&P '1982'] & I went and sat down in an empty 'Adam Smith' library and read it; it was hot and sunny outside & I did not make sense of one single word, there was alot of that going on that year (1985) but I read it again & made notes in pencil on a pad of accounting paper I remember (vividly); then I went to the park (Glasgow is full of Victorian Parks, its nickname…

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Added by John A Morrison on July 20, 2012 at 10:35pm — No Comments

Rational Expectations in Games

Rational Expectations in Games
By Robert J. Aumann and Jacques H. Dreze

http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/raumann/pdf/86.pdf

Added by John A Morrison on July 17, 2012 at 8:30am — No Comments

Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Macroeconomic Risk

Richard T. Ely Lecture
Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Macroeconomic Risk
By Lars Peter Hansen

http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/conferences/koopmans/tck08/hansen4.pdf

Added by John A Morrison on July 17, 2012 at 8:30am — No Comments

Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregressive Models Eric Ghysels

First Draft: July 2011
This Draft: March 14, 2012

INCOMPLETE (THIS VERSION)

http://www.econ.kuleuven.be/eng/ew/seminars/papers2012/Paper_Ghysels.pdf

Added by John A Morrison on July 11, 2012 at 4:00am — 1 Comment

Non-rational expectations and the transmission mechanism

Bank of England

Working Paper No. 448


Non-rational expectations and the transmission mechanism
Richard Harrison and Tim Taylor
May 2012

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/workingpapers/wp448.pdf

Added by John A Morrison on May 19, 2012 at 4:30am — No Comments

Irrationality or Efficiency of Macroeconomic Survey Forecasts?

Irrationality or Efficiency of Macroeconomic Survey Forecasts?



Implications from the Anchoring Bias Test



Abstract



We analyze the quality of macroeconomic survey forecasts. Recent findings indicate that they are anchoring biased. This irrationality would challenge the results of a wide range of empirical studies, e.g., in asset pricing, volatility clustering or market liquidity, which rely on survey data to capture market participants’…

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Added by John A Morrison on February 21, 2012 at 7:00am — No Comments

2 papers: Latest Thinking: Rational Expectations, Anchoring Effects / New Micro foundations of RE

 

I have become interested in the new micro-economic foundations of Macro - Rational Expectations Economics (in the context of irrational macro-policy design, particularly visible in the EuroZone); here are two interesting papers from one seminar at Warwick, link below abstracts ..

 

FIRST PAPER

 

A MODEL OF REFERENCE-DEPENDENT PREFERENCES

 

*BOTOND KO˝SZEGI AND MATTHEW RABIN

 

ABSTRACT: We develop a model of…

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Added by John A Morrison on November 14, 2011 at 9:30am — No Comments

Nobel Prize in Economics 2011 for Sargent & Sims (RE & VAR) - very pertinent to now

 

my LinkedIn List

 

Nobel Prize in Economics 2011 for Sargent & Sims (RE & VAR) - very pertinent to now

 

http://lnkd.in/rRDp_V

 

 

 

Added by John A Morrison on October 19, 2011 at 7:00am — No Comments

Pierre François Verhulst EPISTEMIC HEURISTICS

The Logistic Map and the Route to Chaos

http://www.springer.com/physics/complexity/book/978-3-540-28366-9

 

One dimensional maps and a route to chaos…

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Added by John A Morrison on September 22, 2011 at 1:00am — 1 Comment

Macroeconomic Effects of Bank Lending Supply Shocks

 

 

 

Identifying the Macroeconomic Effects of Bank Lending Supply Shocks
William F. Bassett Mary Beth Chosak John C. Driscoll Egon Zakrajsek
Federal Reserve Board
January 2011

 

http://kcfed.org/publicat/events/research/2011DayAhead/13Driscoll.pdf

Added by John A Morrison on September 5, 2011 at 9:00pm — No Comments

SUPPLEMENT TO “SOLVING THE FELDSTEIN–HORIOKA PUZZLE"

(Econometrica, Vol. 78, No. 2, March 2010, 603–632)
BY YAN BAI AND JING ZHANG

http://www.econometricsociety.org/ecta/Supmat/6619_extensions.pdf

Solving the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle with Financial Frictions

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~jzhang/papers/Bai_Zhang_FHPaper.pdf

Added by John A Morrison on January 1, 2011 at 10:30pm — 2 Comments

Extracting information from structured credit markets

Bank of England Working Paper by Joseph Noss



http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/workingpapers/wp407.pdf



COMMENT ON THIS PAPER



(I generally do not do this & not usually to BoE work)

They seek the Holy Grail…..…

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Added by John A Morrison on December 5, 2010 at 12:30am — No Comments

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