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John A Morrison's Blog – January 2009 Archive (15)

REvolution Computing Makes High Performance ‘REvolution R’ Available For Download

REvolution Computing Makes High Performance ‘REvolution R’



Available For Download







New Haven, CT – January 28, 2009 – REvolution Computing, a leading provider of open source predictive analytics solutions, today announced that it has made a public version of its commercial grade REvolution R program available for download from its website. REvolution R is REvolution Computing’s distribution of the popular R statistical software, optimized for use in commercial… Continue

Added by John A Morrison on January 29, 2009 at 3:00am — No Comments

A Layered Integrated Enterprise Solution Architecture for Financial Predictive Analytics

I think that as an aspect of governments taking equity or preference interest in the banks whilst simultaneously acting as 'counterparty of last resort' in the structured products and credit derivatives markets, a situation which is simply not, even medium term, tenable; the governments should insist that the banks implement modern systems which will support financial analytics in an holistic sense. Systems holistic enough that the banks' boards of management cannot use the 'we were not told'… Continue

Added by John A Morrison on January 27, 2009 at 10:00pm — No Comments

Bank of America / MIT Future Banking Blog

Just a beautifully presented and very interesting blog, in my view.

http://futurebanking.bankofamerica.com/

Added by John A Morrison on January 26, 2009 at 5:30am — No Comments

Scenario Based Enterprise Capital Models - Why Banks are Under-Capitalized

I understand this is paper 2 in a series of 3; paper one is being completed by Professor McNeil and will be a the key contribution to a REvolution in thinking about Economic Capital which does seem to progressing right now.



Abstract: (of the paper referred here)

The concept of economic capital is clear; it is the capital charge that a financial institution (bank or insurance company) requires in order to limit the probability of bankruptcy to a given confidence level over a… Continue

Added by John A Morrison on January 26, 2009 at 5:30am — No Comments

Basel II in Switzerland 9th January 2009 update

In Switzerland the EBK (www.ebk.admin.ch) is entrusted with (Basel II) implementation. Under its leadership a mixed national working group, made up of representatives of all relevant interest groups in the Swiss financial industry, is working out the appropriate Swiss legal regulatory standards. In Switzerland all the menu approaches offered by Basel II are being implemented, and are therefore in principle available to every institute.…



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Added by John A Morrison on January 26, 2009 at 5:30am — No Comments

Gillian Tett on Davos in the Financial Times

Gillian Tett has not written anything under her own byline in the Financial Times since November last year and before that her contributions were unfortunately sparse. She has moved up the ladder in the FT recently, finally acknowledged for all her great reporting on the phases of the Credit Crisis from the summer of 2007 (yes!). She was the first journalist to truly acknowldege it was happening and was in the thick of it during the horrible moments of Central Bank liquidity pumps and Sunday… Continue

Added by John A Morrison on January 26, 2009 at 1:00am — No Comments

The Prediction Lover's Handbook MIT Sloan School

Nice overview of the perspective of both of these well regarded academics on the subject of Prediction, where its at right now, Sloan Management Review is usually well ahead of the curve. You have to register to see this but I would recommend that you do. As a second-degree stundent SMR almost did my degree for me, in part!





The Prediction Lover’s Handbook

By Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris



January 7, 2009



Assessment tools for better-informing… Continue

Added by John A Morrison on January 26, 2009 at 12:30am — No Comments

Quantitative Analytics in Banking: How do we get the Heads Out of the Sand

The press has got onto thinking about what is wrong with banking right now, it has taken a crisis to get them to focus. It has taken a crisis to bring the banks and their supervisors closer together, sharing a common objective and that at the very least is one good thing to evolve from this crisis. Supervisors and senior Bankers are at least on adjacent pages. But that is only in terms of the regulatory and transparency requirements, the theory, the jurisprudence if you will. It will take the… Continue

Added by John A Morrison on January 25, 2009 at 12:30am — No Comments

The quill pen and asymptotic approximation -

This is a really important article from the august "Daily Telegraph" in the UK, it describes the process being undertaken right now to quantify a value for the structured products held off or on balance sheet by the UK banks, it focuses on the biggest and most controversial of the UK banks which WAS a player in this market game, RBOS for whose executives and ex-executives the UK press are beginning to sniff the opportunity for blood!…



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Added by John A Morrison on January 24, 2009 at 11:00pm — 1 Comment

Basel Committee Trading Book Requirements ”Revision Proposals”

The consultative papers Revisions to the Basel II market risk framework and Guidelines for computing capital for incremental risk in the trading book set out the Committee's proposed enhancements to the regulatory capital treatment for trading book exposures. Collectively, these are referred to as the "trading book proposals".



The Committee therefore proposes to require banks to calculate a stressed VaR taking into account a one-year observation period relating to significant losses,… Continue

Added by John A Morrison on January 18, 2009 at 4:00am — 3 Comments

Proposed enhancements to the Basel II framework

The Basel Committee has proposed this weekend root and branch, fundamental revisions of the Basel II Framework in all three pillars Pillar 1 (minimum capital requirements), Pillar 2 (supervisory review process) and the third pillar (market discipline); reflecting particular concern about the trading book, ABCP Conduits, Structured Products and more particularly Banking Supervision (as opposed to regulation). The impacts of the proposed changes to Pillar 3 (Disclosure) look unusually interesting… Continue

Added by John A Morrison on January 18, 2009 at 3:00am — No Comments

A missing link in the transmission mechanism?

THIS IS QUITE SIMPLY A CRUCIAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE CURRENT DEBATE ABOUT WHAT WILL QUANTITATIVE FINANCE LOOK LIKE POST CREDIT CRUNCH



A missing link in the transmission mechanism?



by Claudio Borio and Haibin Zhu, Bank for International Settlements



Over the last three decades the financial landscape has gone through radical structural change. As a result of financial liberalisation and innovation, heavily controlled, segmented and “sleepy” domestic financial… Continue

Added by John A Morrison on January 16, 2009 at 3:00am — No Comments

Stress testing credit risk: a survey of authorities' approaches

by Antonella Foglia, Banca d’Italia, Banking and Financial Supervision



This paper reviews the quantitative methods developed at selected authorities for stress testing credit risk, focusing in particular on the methods used to link macroeconomic drivers of stress with bank-specific measures of credit risk (macro stress test). Authorities with a mandate for financial stability are particularly interested in quantifying the macro-to-micro linkages and have developed specific modeling… Continue

Added by John A Morrison on January 12, 2009 at 3:00am — No Comments

SAP White Paper on a Solution Architecture for Economic Capital Quantitative Analytics, pre Credit Crunch

John A Morrison developed a comprehensive White Paper for SAP, published in April 2006, pre-credit crunch, on the topic of a Solution Architecture for Economic Capital Quantitative Analytics; Basel II Pillar 2 (B2P2). This prescient WP pointed out then, that the reality of banking quantitative risk capital analysis was the reverse of the way it seemed, the shadow banking tail was wagging the main street lending dog and to quantify risk capital properly (as required by the now effectively… Continue

Added by John A Morrison on January 11, 2009 at 3:00am — No Comments

Stress testing banks'credit risk using mixture vector autoregressive models

Prepared by Tom Pak-wing Fong, Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Chun-shan Wong, Department of Finance, The Chinese University of Hong Kong



This paper estimates macroeconomic credit risk of banks’ loan portfolio based on a class of mixture vector autoregressive models. Such class of models can differentiate distributions of default rates and macroeconomic conditions for different market situations and can capture their dynamics evolving over time, including the… Continue

Added by John A Morrison on January 9, 2009 at 3:00am — No Comments

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