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Vincent Granville's Blog (773)

Gaussian copula function: The Formula That Killed Wall Street

From the Wired Magazine (Felix Salmon)



A year ago, it was hardly unthinkable that a math wizard like David X. Li might someday earn a Nobel Prize. After all, financial economists—even Wall Street quants—have received the Nobel in economics before, and Li's work on measuring risk has had more impact, more quickly, than previous Nobel Prize-winning contributions to the field. Today, though, as dazed bankers, politicians, regulators, and investors survey the wreckage of the biggest… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on June 23, 2009 at 10:30am — 2 Comments

Rogue Wave Software Acquires Visual Numerics

Creates a leading commercial vendor of cross-platform, embeddable software libraries



BOULDER, Colo., May 5, 2009 - Rogue Wave Software, Inc., a Battery Ventures portfolio company, today announced that it has acquired Visual Numerics, Inc., a privately held advanced analytics software company based in Houston, Texas.



For more than three decades, Visual Numerics has provided numerical analysis and visualization software solutions that help users understand complex data from… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on May 6, 2009 at 3:38am — No Comments

Swine Flu Virus Detected Earlier Via Data Mining Techniques

Kirkland firm noted outbreak in Mexico early



Weeks before the Centers for Disease Control and the World Health Organization alerted the public to a growing number of swine flu cases, a startup based in Kirkland already had a hunch something was up. Veratect Inc., a 2-year-old company with fewer than 50 employees, combines computer algorithms with human analysts to monitor online and offline sources for hints of disease outbreaks and civil unrest worldwide



By Jessica… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on May 3, 2009 at 10:30pm — No Comments

Death of Consumer Segmentation - Ridiculous! (by Tom Anderson)

If thinking about segmentation, make sure you talk to someone who has actually done a few different types!



There’s another article on consumer segmentation this week that seems to be getting a lot of buzz on twitter etc. You can read the article here in AdAge CMO Strategy section. Michael Fassnacht argues about the weakness of segmentation.



I disagreed with this article and will respond briefly here because I think segmentation studies are the most important type of… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on April 19, 2009 at 10:00am — 1 Comment

Hidden Decision Trees - A Better Approach to Scoring

Hidden Decision Trees is a statistical and data mining methodology (just like logistic regression, SVM, neural networks or decision trees) to handle problems with large amounts of data, non-linearities and strongly correlated independent variables.



The technique is easy to implement in any programming language. It is more robust than decision trees or logistic regression. Implementations typically rely heavily on large, granular hash tables.



No decision tree is… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on March 17, 2009 at 10:30pm — 2 Comments

Microsoft offers a $250K reward to catch the operator of a very fast growing botnet

by Mark Hachman



Microsoft, several security firms, and members of the academic community came together Thursday to try and develop a coordinated plan to halt the spread of the Conficker worm, also known as Downadup.



Microsoft announced a $250,000 reward for information leading to the arrest and conviction of the Conficker author or authors, available to anyone in any country, subject to local laws. Meanwhile, a group of security companies pledged to work together to… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on February 13, 2009 at 4:00pm — No Comments

Legislation Aims To Curb Data Mining

Most people are unaware that after they fill a prescription, many pharmacies turn around and sell information about that prescription to pharmaceutical companies in order for them to market their drugs to physicians. This practice is called data mining and it has negative consequences for the public health, health care costs, and privacy.



Through data mining, pharmaceutical companies are able to target-market their high-cost, brand-name drugs to prescribers who either are already… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on February 2, 2009 at 6:30pm — 1 Comment

Click fraud reaches record high in Q4 2008

Click fraud is at its highest rate ever, new research shows. The average click fraud rate for paid search advertisers reached a record 17.1% in the fourth quarter, up from 16% for the third quarter and 16.6% for Q4 of 2007, web traffic quality auditor Click Forensics Inc. reports.



Click fraud traffic from botnets, robotic software that automatically clicks on ads, increased 14% for the quarter—the second highest jump ever, Click Forensics says. Botnets were responsible for 31.4% of… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on January 29, 2009 at 8:30pm — No Comments

Article about R in NY Times

R first appeared in 1996, when the statistics professors Robert Gentleman, left, and Ross Ihaka released the code as a free software package.



By ASHLEE VANCE

Published: January 6, 2009



To some people R is just the 18th letter of the alphabet. To others, it’s the rating on racy movies, a measure of an attic’s insulation or what pirates in movies say.



R is also the name of a popular programming language used by a growing number of data analysts inside… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on January 7, 2009 at 11:00am — No Comments

Going From a Theory of Error to a Web Analytics Process

By Gary Angel



My post on “Numbers it’s better NOT to know” got me thinking more closely about the relationship between a theory of error and the types of web analytic process organizations should adopt. That led to a more considered post “Defending the Indefensible” where I laid out some of the most common causes of error and talked a little bit about how these errors should influence our thinking about organization and process. Jacques Warren, whose comments certainly triggered some… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on December 26, 2008 at 6:30pm — 1 Comment

Scoring Internet Transactions for Fraud Detection

1. What is click fraud?



Click fraud is usually defined as the act of purposely clicking on ads on pay-per-click programs with no interest in the target web site. Two types of fraud are usually mentioned:



  • An advertiser clicking on competitor ads to deplete their ad spend budgets, with fraud frequently taking place early in the morning and through multiple distribution partners: AOL, Ask.com, MSN, Google, Yahoo, etc.
  • A malicious distribution partner…
Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on December 8, 2008 at 3:30am — No Comments

Data Mining with the Naked Eye - Looking for Contributors (new book)

We have started writing a new book: Data Mining with the Naked Eye. We show that well chosen graphs combined with human brain interpretation is powerful to help with business decisions. We also show that simple but smart reporting, careful metric and data selection, when combined with appropriate visuals, provide higher efficiency than sophisticated statistical models. This is true even with the largest data sets, when data is seen through the eyes of a sharp data miner with a strong… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on November 12, 2008 at 12:36am — No Comments

Cloud Computing - Methodology Notes, by Paco Nathan

A couple companies ago, one of my mentors -- Jack Olson, author of Data Quality -- taught us team leaders to follow a formula for sizing software development groups. Of course this is simply a guidance, but it makes sense:





9:3:1 for dev/test/doc



In other words, a 3:1 ratio of developers to testers, and then a 9:1 ratio of developers to technical writers. Also figure in how a group that size (13) needs a manager/architect and some project management.



On the… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on November 3, 2008 at 1:00pm — 4 Comments

Data Mining in the NY Times

October 22, 2008

Banks Mine Data and Pitch to Troubled Borrowers

By BRAD STONE



Brenda Jerez hardly seems like the kind of person lenders would fight over.





Three years ago, she became ill with cancer and ran up $50,000 on her credit cards after she was forced to leave her accounting job. She filed for bankruptcy protection last year.





For months after she emerged from insolvency last fall, 6 to 10 new credit card and auto loan offers arrived… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on October 28, 2008 at 6:33pm — 1 Comment

The Democratization of Analytics - Microsoft Project Gemini

Last week I attended the Microsoft BI Conference. I learned about project Gemini. This project will allow analytics power users in companies to use Excel to do powerful analytics, while simultaneously allowing collaboration among all stakeholders using PerformancePoint. It allows Excel to load over 100 million rows (and about 6 columns) in just a few seconds and then create interactive pivot tables. They are still working on calculations but the demonstration was powerful. If you see Ted… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on October 14, 2008 at 2:54pm — 1 Comment

My Interview with Ajay Ohri

What prompted you take a career in science, and what has been the reason you stuck to it, and been a sucess in it



I was doing mathematics for fun at a very young age when my friends were interested in sports, cars and movies. When I finished my master, I was approached by one of the professors to pursue a PhD program. It was in statistics (image analysis, bayesian clustering), and I thought that choosing statistics rather than number theory or numerical analysis would increase… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on September 3, 2008 at 11:37am — 6 Comments

Social Media & Government - SEC To Recognize Corporate Blogs As Public Disclosure

For several years, Sun CEO, Jonathan Schwartz has lobbied the SEC to allow disclosure of financial information through corporate blogs. In a landmark announcement, it seems that Mr. Schwartz may indeed get his wish, and with it, a historical decision that could break the age-old shackles that bound businesses to traditional media and distribution channels in order to satisfy full disclosure.



The SEC has announced that it will recognize corporate Web sites and blogs as channels for…

Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on August 13, 2008 at 5:00pm — No Comments

U.S. Government Using Social Media For Counter-Intelligence

The U.S. government is using social media technologies to reach out to the world, to start a dialogue, to influence foreign policy and to change the perception of the United Stated with the rest of the world.



With that the Department of State has set up Project Dipnote and created a YouTube Channel, a Blog, a Flickr photo album, a Twitter account, an account iTunes for podcast, RSS feeds and just recently launched a Facebook page.



Secretary of State Condi Rice has called… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on August 12, 2008 at 12:14am — No Comments

Iterative Algorithm for Linear Regression

I am trying to solve the regression Y=AX where Y is the response, X the input, and A the regression coefficients. I came up with the following iterative algorithm:

Ak+1 = cYU + Ak (I-cXU),


where:



  • c is an arbitrary constant
  • U is an arbitrary matrix such that YU has same dimension as A. For instance U = transposed(X)…
Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on July 30, 2008 at 6:00pm — No Comments

Statistical Software Survey, by the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences

This survey of products is an update of the survey published in 2005. The biennial statistical software survey in this issue provides capsule information about 44 products selected from 31 vendors. The tools range from general tools that cover the standard techniques of inference and estimation as well as specialized activities such as nonlinear regression, forecasting and design of experiments. The product information contained in the survey was obtained from product vendors and is summarized… Continue

Added by Vincent Granville on July 26, 2008 at 12:00am — 2 Comments

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