DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Non-modelled Variables

Frank Schorfheide
Keith Sill
Maxym Kryshko

University of Pennsylvania and Federal Reserve Board of Pennsylvania

ABSTRACT

This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to the state variables of the DSGE model. Predictions for the non-core variables are obtained by applying their measurement equations to DSGE model-generated forecasts of the state variables. Using a medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model, we apply our approach to generate and evaluate recursive forecasts for PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, the unemployment rate, and housing starts along with predictions for the seven variables that have been used to estimate the DSGE model.

http://www.faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ucrconference_files/schorfheide...

INTERESTING WORK, RELEVANT IN EUROPE, VERY 'UP TO THE MINUTE' <-' lowest form ... (sic)'