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Market fluctuations and predictions
Fluctuations - Markets often fluctuate by +/- 2% on a day-to-day basis. Graphs of market trends are up-dated on-line and in real-time on various web sites. http://money.ca.msn.com/
An example of this is the DJI average which increased by 1.65% today (2010-08-28).
DJI (Daily)
However, it's important to put these fluctuations in perspective. When these daily fluctuations are compared with those that occurred in the last year, they are marginal (noise) at best.
DJI (Yearly)
Predictions - The Hindenburg Omen (US market prediction) just may be right, another analyst indicates that the situation is ratty at best for the US economy.
http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/deirdre-mcmurdy/article.aspx?cp-d...
Comment
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Comment by Chris Carozza on August 31, 2010 at 5:00pm
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50 Percent Crash Coming for Stock Market?
Behavioral analysis model (BAM) publicly Twitters (http://twitter.com/baminvestor) key market predictions previously available only to financial institutions and hedge funds.
As Vincent Granville mentioned "models can predict based on text and message mining". In this case BAM is based on a deep, quantitative analysis of complex human behaviors and social movements. Thus the model is more inherently predictive and not as reactive. Other models are available on the BAM web site (http://baminvestor.com).
People would prefer to hear positive market predictions, but early warning signals are also useful when making buisiness descisions.
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Comment by Vincent Granville on August 28, 2010 at 8:58pm
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A great deal of volatility can be explained, modeled, and predicted based on behavioral (what people believe). I would not be surprised that if you perform text mining on messages posted on Yahoo (possibly after filtering out fake messages / spam), you would obtain good directional market signals.
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