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A few days before the second round of the presidential election, StatSoft Polska published a forecast of the election results by professor Andrzej Sokołowski, obtained using STATISTICA tools. The forecast not only predicted the winner of the election but also the support given for each candidate – the error of the forecast was less than 1 percent. StatSoft Polska predicted that the winner, Bronisław Komorowski, would receive 53.96% of the vote, and the actual outcome was that he received 53.01% of the vote.


It is worth mentioning that the forecast was obtained exclusively on the basis of the results of the first round of the presidential election, without any surveys. This is important because professional surveys and exit polls in Poland have recently experienced spectacular failures. StatSoft’s forecast was based exclusively on data from the first round of the election, and therefore did not include the effects of campaigning that took place between the first and the second round, yet the results were still accurate.


The analysis summary, forecast results of the second round of the election, and detailed information about models used are available online: http://www.statsoft.pl/election2010.html


StatSoft (www.StatSoft.pl, www.StatSoft.com) specializes in statistical data analysis and data mining and is one of the largest global providers of analytic software – STATISTICA. StatSoft products are commonly used throughout the world by industrial and trading companies, business services, financial institutions, government authorities, scientific research institutes, universities.


Link to article: http://statsoft.com/support/blog/entryid/145/statsoft-polska-predic...



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