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The Fiscal Times is running an excerpt from my book, Predictive Analytics, about the Obama campaign's use of uplift modeling (aka net lift or persuasion modeling).
ARTICLE: The Real Story Behind Obama's Election Victory
By Eric Siegel
Elections hang by a thinner thread than you think.
By now you probably know that Barack Obama's 2012 campaign for a second term "moneyballed" the election, employing a team of over 50 analytics experts.
You may also know that the huge volume of contentious and costly presidential campaign tactics – executed in the eleventh hour in pursuit of the world's most powerful job – ultimately served only to sway a thin slice of the electorate: swing voters within swing states.
But what most people don't realize is that presidential campaigns must focus even more narrowly than that, taking micro-targeting to a whole new level. The Obama campaign got this one right, breaking ground for election cycles to come by applying an advanced form of predictive analytics that pinpoints rare gems: truly persuadable voters.
This is the new microcosmic battleground.
This article is excerpted from my book Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die (published by Wiley Feb 18).